Defend estimates before fragile IT projects
become escalation problems.

An offline Excel workbook. Not an estimation tool — a decision‑defense framework for the PM who must defend the number already given. Four views: Project Context → Risk Summary → Personal Exposure → Defense Narrative.

The problem

• Governance bodies demand certainty at the point of maximum uncertainty — and hold you accountable for numbers you gave under pressure.
• Scope volatility accumulates silently until it surfaces as a budget variance no one can explain cleanly.
• Every estimate you sign carries reputational exposure. Without a documented defense, there is no audit trail when questions arise.

What you get

Below you can see these outputs exactly as delivered in the included sample memos. See sample outputs →

Inside the framework

Sample outputs

Three scenarios — Defendable, High Risk, and Politically Exposed — each showing Risk Summary, Personal Exposure, and Defense Narrative as produced by the framework.

The excerpts below are taken verbatim from the included sample memos (Defendable, High Risk, Politically Exposed).

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Defensibility Score | **99 / 100** |
| Risk Class | **Defendable** |
| Project Risk | 2 / 100 |
| Governance Risk | 0 / 100 |
| Client Risk | 0 / 100 |
The project presents a defensible risk profile (Defensibility Score: 99/100). The current configuration of scope, governance, and client conditions does not generate material exposure. Standard delivery controls are sufficient, provided inputs remain stable.

**Low** — Your professional exposure is limited. Delivery conditions support a defensible position.

---

The project presents a defensible risk profile (Defensibility Score: 99/100). The current configuration of scope, governance, and client conditions does not generate material exposure. Standard delivery controls are sufficient, provided inputs remain stable.

Recommendation: Proceed with current estimate, monitor assumptions, and review at next governance checkpoint.

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Defensibility Score | **33 / 100** |
| Risk Class | **High Risk** |
| Project Risk | 64 / 100 |
| Governance Risk | 91 / 100 |
| Client Risk | 39 / 100 |
The project is rated High Risk (Defensibility Score: 33/100). The combination of active risk factors creates a material probability of cost overrun, schedule deviation, or contractual dispute. Engagement on current terms requires explicit risk acceptance at leadership level.

**High** — High personal exposure. Governance gaps and client conditions create direct accountability risk for the estimate owner.

---

The project is rated High Risk (Defensibility Score: 33/100). The combination of active risk factors creates a material probability of cost overrun, schedule deviation, or contractual dispute. Engagement on current terms requires explicit risk acceptance at leadership level.

Requirement stability is rated "Partially stable". This is the primary project risk driver. Unstable requirements in an active delivery context generate scope creep, rework cycles, and estimate invalidation. This risk must be addressed at the source, not absorbed by the delivery team.

External dependencies are rated "Significant". Third-party components, integrations, or decisions outside direct project control represent a material schedule and quality risk. Dependency management must be escalated to a named owner with authority to act.

Deadline pressure is rated "High". Compressed timelines increase the probability of quality reduction, scope negotiation under duress, and team burnout. If the deadline is fixed, scope or resources must be adjusted accordingly — all three variables cannot be held simultaneously.

Governance Risk is rated 91/100, indicating structural gaps in decision authority and accountability. Projects with unresolved governance are statistically more likely to experience decision delays, scope disputes, and contested acceptance. These gaps must be resolved before delivery starts, not during.

Recommendation: Clarify decision authority and escalation path before committing to timeline.

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Defensibility Score | **0 / 100** |
| Risk Class | **Politically Exposed** |
| Project Risk | 100 / 100 |
| Governance Risk | 100 / 100 |
| Client Risk | 100 / 100 |
The project is rated Politically Exposed (Defensibility Score: 0/100). The risk profile indicates that delivery exposure is compounded by structural governance gaps and client-side conditions that are outside normal delivery risk. Leadership should assess whether engagement is viable under current conditions.

**Critical** — Critical exposure. Structural conditions make it likely your decisions will be contested — document every assumption now.

---

The project is rated Politically Exposed (Defensibility Score: 0/100). The risk profile indicates that delivery exposure is compounded by structural governance gaps and client-side conditions that are outside normal delivery risk. Leadership should assess whether engagement is viable under current conditions.

Requirement stability is rated "Very unstable". This is the primary project risk driver. Unstable requirements in an active delivery context generate scope creep, rework cycles, and estimate invalidation. This risk must be addressed at the source, not absorbed by the delivery team.

A fixed-scope contract ("Fixed scope") is being considered against a requirement baseline rated "Very unstable". This combination is structurally inconsistent. Fixed-scope contracts transfer delivery risk to the supplier only when the scope is fully defined and stable — conditions that are not currently met.

External dependencies are rated "Critical". Third-party components, integrations, or decisions outside direct project control represent a material schedule and quality risk. Dependency management must be escalated to a named owner with authority to act.

Deadline pressure is rated "Extreme". Compressed timelines increase the probability of quality reduction, scope negotiation under duress, and team burnout. If the deadline is fixed, scope or resources must be adjusted accordingly — all three variables cannot be held simultaneously.

Governance Risk is rated 100/100, indicating structural gaps in decision authority and accountability. Projects with unresolved governance are statistically more likely to experience decision delays, scope disputes, and contested acceptance. These gaps must be resolved before delivery starts, not during.

Recommendation: Do not commit to fixed scope; require scope stabilization and change control.

What this is not

• Not for end clients or team members. Designed for whoever holds delivery accountability — Senior PM, Delivery Manager, or Consulting Lead. Not a shared team resource.
• Not compatible with LibreOffice or OpenOffice. Requires Microsoft Excel desktop (Windows or Mac) or Excel Online.
• No support, onboarding, or consulting included. The license is self-service. Questions will not receive a response.

Pricing

Instant download • Price: €699 + VAT (added at checkout) • Offline Excel • No support included

License & support policy

• Self-service only. No onboarding, no walkthrough calls.
• No support is provided. Questions will not receive a response.
• Internal use only. Redistribution, resale, and sublicensing are not permitted.

FAQ

Is this an estimation tool?

No. It does not generate or validate estimates. It takes the number you already have and produces a structured defense — risk classification, exposure rating, and narrative — for when that number is challenged.

When should I use it?

After the estimate is set but before it is formally signed or presented to governance. Also useful when an existing estimate is being contested and you need an audit trail fast.

What does "Politically Exposed" mean here?

It means the project carries governance or accountability risk beyond standard delivery risk — contested decision authority, ambiguous ownership, or conditions where outcomes will be attributed to you regardless of cause. It has nothing to do with AML or financial compliance definitions of PEP.

Do I need to install anything?

No. It is an Excel workbook. Open it in Microsoft Excel desktop (Windows or Mac) or Excel Online. No macros, no add-ins, no setup.